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First, the motivation to have a predictable world causes hindsight bias when observers watch decision makers. The microwave was developed when an engineer working on a radar’s magnetron noticed it made his chocolate bar melt he later tested it with popcorn kernels.Īt least two motivations underlie hindsight bias. military after the September 11, 2001, attacks for missing “obvious” warning signs. More-drastic examples of hindsight bias occurred with criticism of counterterrorism agencies and the U.S. It describes the fan who second-guesses decisions made during a game from the perspective of knowing the outcome of those decisions. The “Monday morning quarterback,” derived from gridiron football, illustrates a mild example. The situations range from relatively mild to world changing. It occurs across individuals regardless of age, gender, or culture, and it happens across a wide range of situations. Subsequent investigations into the causes and the consequences of hindsight bias determined that the phenomenon is widespread and difficult to avoid. Hindsight bias was evident when people overestimated the accuracy of their predictions. Early studies asked people almanac-type trivia questions or had them make predictions of political elections participants were later asked to recall their predictions. That retroactive belief that the outcome was obvious from the start is hindsight bias.Īlthough hindsight bias can be identified throughout human history, the phenomenon was first described and studied as such in the 1970s by psychologists who were investigating errors in human decision making. For example, when asked whether people prefer to spend time with others who are similar or with others who differ significantly (in beliefs, background, and the like), individuals can easily explain why either outcome is likely, often by drawing on conventional wisdom: some may claim that “birds of a feather flock together,” whereas others may argue that “opposites attract.” Once an experiment has shown support for only one outcome, however, participants often believe that the result is “obvious,” and they minimize or do not even entertain the alternative reasoning. Presented with two opposing predictions, most people are able to justify the likelihood of either outcome. It is colloquially known as the “I knew it all along phenomenon.”
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Hindsight bias, the tendency, upon learning an outcome of an event-such as an experiment, a sporting event, a military decision, or a political election-to overestimate one’s ability to have foreseen the outcome. SpaceNext50 Britannica presents SpaceNext50, From the race to the Moon to space stewardship, we explore a wide range of subjects that feed our curiosity about space!.Learn about the major environmental problems facing our planet and what can be done about them! Saving Earth Britannica Presents Earth’s To-Do List for the 21st Century.Britannica Beyond We’ve created a new place where questions are at the center of learning.100 Women Britannica celebrates the centennial of the Nineteenth Amendment, highlighting suffragists and history-making politicians.COVID-19 Portal While this global health crisis continues to evolve, it can be useful to look to past pandemics to better understand how to respond today.Student Portal Britannica is the ultimate student resource for key school subjects like history, government, literature, and more.From tech to household and wellness products. This Time in History In these videos, find out what happened this month (or any month!) in history.#WTFact Videos In #WTFact Britannica shares some of the most bizarre facts we can find.Demystified Videos In Demystified, Britannica has all the answers to your burning questions.Britannica Explains In these videos, Britannica explains a variety of topics and answers frequently asked questions.Britannica Classics Check out these retro videos from Encyclopedia Britannica’s archives.